More pain for Kenyans as CBK warns of price increases

Fresh packaged milk, green peas, and cabbage are among the food items that may no longer feature on the menus of most Kenyans as food inflation deepens, new data shows.

Data from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) cites weather conditions and fuel prices as the main drivers of these price hikes, just as Kenyans are preparing for the long holiday season that culminates in Christmas and New Year celebrations.

These conditions will also affect green maize, wheat flour, maize flour, carrots, spinach, onions, and tomatoes, all of which are common food items in a traditional Kenyan meal.

The Agriculture Sector Survey by CBK for September 2026 shows relatively more pronounced expectations of price increases across most of the sampled food commodities a month ahead.

The survey shows that most respondents expected prices of commodities to increase, largely driven by weather conditions and higher production and transport costs due to elevated fuel prices.

"Expectations for price increases were particularly notable for unpeeled garden peas, in which the proportion expecting a price increase one month ahead rose from 29 per cent in August to 68 per cent in September 2026, mainly driven by respondents’ concerns about market supplies of the commodity due to prolonged dry weather conditions in key source regions," the survey says.

The survey, which collected responses from wholesalers, retailers and farmers, concludes that the prices of most food commodities are set to increase in the near term, with different commodities experiencing varying degrees of price increases.

This was determined by the proportion of respondents expecting price increases being generally higher in the September 2026 survey, compared with August 2026.

"The increase was particularly pronounced for cow milk where the sampled respondents expected a price increase one month ahead," the survey says.

The survey says this was not surprising as the impact of the depressed March-May 2026 long rain season in select food basket areas has affected pasture, leading to a shortage in milk supplies and subsequent increase in milk prices.

"Price expectations for fresh packeted cow milk were the most pronounced, with three per cent expecting a decline in the August 2026 survey to 74 per cent expecting an increase in September 2026 based on balance of opinions calculations," the survey says.

It adds that respondents also expected an increase in the prices of maize and wheat products in the next month, driven largely by concerns about the impact of adverse weather conditions on market supply of these commodities.

"For instance, the proportion of respondents expecting an increase in the price of sifted maize flour increased from 19 per cent in August to 40 per cent in September, fortified maize flour from 31 per cent to 47 per cent, wheat flour- white from 29 per cent to 48 per cent and sugar from 15 per cent to 28 per cent," the survey says.

The respondents of the survey were sampled from select wholesale and retail markets and farms in key food basket regions.

These included the Nairobi Metropolitan area and neighbouring counties such as Kiambu, Kajiado, and Machakos.

Other areas covered included Naivasha, Gilgil, Nakuru, Narok, Bomet, Kericho, Kisumu, Mombasa, Taita-Taveta, Makueni, Kisii, Eldoret, Kitale, Nyandarua, Nyahururu, Mwea, Isibania, Meru, Nyeri, Murang’a, Laikipia, Isiolo, Oloitoktok, Namanga, and Molo and some parts of Western Kenya.

The survey featured 466 respondents. In addition to food price expectations, respondents were also asked to indicate their expectations on the overall inflation in the next one month and the next three months.

The proportion of respondents expecting inflation to increase one month ahead rose to 64 per cent in September 2026, up from 53 per cent in August 2026. By contrast, the proportion expecting inflation to moderate three months ahead fell to 61 per cent from 63 per cent over the same period.

"The increase in inflation expectations in September 2026 largely reflected respondents’ concerns about unfavourable weather conditions in select food basket regions and the potential adverse impact on energy and oil prices due to the ongoing US-Iran war and the broader Middle East conflict," the survey says

Among the recommendations by the respondents on how the prices of food commodities can be soften is improving road networks especially feeder roads, which present a big challenge during periods of heavy rainfall.

Additionally, the government could reduce cost of fuel, especially diesel which is a major input in production as it is used to power tractors, generators and other farm equipment and machinery.

In the most recent fuel price cycle by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority(EPRA), the price of a litre of diesel went up to retail at Sh227.

"The government should put measures in place to reduce the cost of agricultural equipment and machinery to promote farm mechanisation, enhance productivity and improve the efficiency of agricultural production. Government should continue to improve the road network to ensure  uninterrupted movement of farm produce which is good for food security and food price stability," the survey says.